Saturday, July 17, 2010

NBA Free Agency: Jazz are dead? Not really.

It would seem easy to assume that after the Jazz lost Carlos Boozer to the Chicago Bulls, the Jazz would probably start their spiral down out of the playoffs in the West. Boozer, with his impressive 19.5 points and 11.2 rebounds per game, seemed to be the key of Utah's success since Deron Williams' assists needed someone to score. Then he left, after a less than impressive playoff run with the Jazz in 2010. And then Kyle Korver left, who led the NBA in 3-point percentage and considered one of the league's best shooters.

However, could this be the key to actually lift up the Jazz from being a lowly playoff team? Could it actually lead them to beating the Lakers and even, dare I say it, to win a championship? The Utah Jazz suffer from what our Portland Trail Blazers suffer a lot from: Love. The Utah Jazz love their team to the point that they would be willing to take a bullet to save one of their players. And because of that, the management office was unwilling to make any huge changes in the line up to change the team since everyone literally loved anyone and no one wanted anyone to leave.

However, this move by Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver to leave for the Bulls might be one of the greatest things to happen to the Jazz franchise in the 2000's. Not only does it force the team to get used to the fact that the players will leave, it also forces the management to look for players that could be better and stronger than the players that they replaced. The first move of such was to sign Al Jefferson from the Timberwolves. You are adding a guy who averages 17.1 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, a slight down grade from Boozer, but keep in mind that in the previous 2 seasons, he averaged a 22.1 points and 11 rebounds (combined last 2 seasons). He can post up, face up, defend (1.3 blocks in his career) and the guy is just a huge presence in anybody's game. He can play the 5 and 4, being too quick for most centers and too strong for the power forwards. He is 6-10 and 265 pounds, plus he can run the court, set good screens, run the pick-and-roll, hit that short jumper, and run isolation plays for your team. To me, I think that this guy will bring a newly motivated personality to the Jazz and be a really big steal in the Free Agency class, bring the Jazz up and running for the 2010-2011 season.

The we move onto Kyle Korver. This guy shot 53.6 percent from 3 point range in the 2009-2010 season along with 87.9 percent from the free throw line for his career. If you don't know much about basketball, let me tell you that that is really REALLY impressive. Personally, I would have wished that the Blazers would have gone for this guy instead of Wes Matthews. So how to you replace this guy if you're the Jazz? You don't. This is one of the only places where if you're the Jazz, you try to hang onto him desperately because besides Ray Allen, you really won't find a better shooter than Kyle Korver. It's a sad loss for the Jazz, and a long look in the free agency class to find someone who could even slightly replace his abilities.

If the Jazz don't add anyone else to their roster, my prediction is that they will finish the same as they did this year: 54-28. Al Jefferson will prove very quickly that he is much better than Boozer, and plus it will also leave more room for Paul Millsap to develop, who I believe is one of the league's more underrated power forwards. Don't expect Utah to die this year. Expect them to be reborn.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

NBA Free Agency: Miami soars up the Standings by Signing Bosh and Wade


Look out folks, we have another powerhouse in the East. The Miami Heat has just signed Chris Bosh to their what-seemed-to-be a team on the downfall since their championship in 2006. Needing someone strong on the inside, they figured out quickly that Michael Beasley was not the answer they were hoping for. Miami has not made it out of the first round since their championship, and even posted a league worst 15-67 record in 2007-2008 season. Dwyane Wade was about to leave Miami. And all seemed lost.

Yet now, the Heat are back. And not only that, they are now an instant contender in the East, if not for the NBA championship. It seems that that the only thing missing is to have LeBron join the Dynamic Duo when he announces where he is going on Thursday on ESPN, in which people believe it would be the most dominating Big 3 in the history of sports. But that is to be decided on Thursday.

Now if we look at Miami, they have 2 players who are arguably the best in their position. The only problem is the rest of the team. For the last couple years, you could have renamed the Miami Heat to the Miami Wade. He averaged a whopping 26.6 points per game last season, but his team only scored 96.5, the sixth least in the NBA. So take that Wade is injured, or isn't playing well, you can move that 26.6 points down to 15 points, making that number 89.9 points a game, which averages a loss by 4 points. And if Wade was injured, he was also the leading assist man on the team with 6.5 assists per game, meaning two things: the rest of the team depended on Wade to make their shots and if he's gone, they can't create their own shots.

Now if you add Chris Bosh to the picture, you have a man who averages a dazzling 24 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. You also add a guy who can create his own shot and will tackle rebounds to give your team extra possessions, as he averages 2.9 offensive rebounds per game. You have instantly two guys who aren't dependent of each other but can work the pick-and-roll offense and can work off double-teams very well.

Here are two things that Miami will succeed in:

Be an offensive powerhouse: Adding Chris Bosh will essentially mean that he will replace Michael Beasley in the offense. Michael Beasley has been 14.8 points per game while Chris Bosh has been averaging 24. Mathematically, the difference is 9.2 points. If you add that to Miami's total team point average, the number is 106.7, making Miami the third best scorer in the league, putting them ahead of the Denver Nuggets and the Utah Jazz.

Be a rebounding monster: Statistically, Miami is in the bottom 10 in rebounding, averaging just below 41 rebounds per game at 40.7. Again, if you assume that Miami will keep Udonis Haslem and trade Michael Beasley (being the number 2 draft pick and having a bigger value in the market), you essentially replace 6.4 rebounds with 10.8, a 4.4 rebound bonus to Miami. Adding it all up, Miami averages 45.1 rebounds per game, again putting them in third best rebounding team in the NBA if you use the 2009 - 2010 season statistics.

However, here are 2 things that Miami will desperately need:

A better point guard - Miami was dead last in assists in the 2009-2010 season. Carlos Arroyo, their starting point guard, averages 3.1 assists per game and Mario Chalmers averages 3.4 assists per game. If Miami wants to succeed in the future, they are going to need a point guard that can run the floor, run the fast break, and run the offense. Getting Rafer Alston won't add much either. The best get right now would probably be Raymond Felton from the Charlotte Bobcats, whom they are going to meet anyway. Felton's numbers are great, averaging 12.1 points and 5.6 assists per game, easily outshining any of Miami's current point guards. He also a huge part in Charlotte's run to the playoffs in 2010. He would probably be their best bet at the moment.

A better bench - No doubt that bench run by Udonis Haslem, Mario Chalmers, Dorell Wright, and Joel Anthony won't be the route to a championship. Altogether, they average 26.8 points per game, which is mediocre because even if you remove Wade, the starters will a 42.2 points per game a total of 15.4 more points. The bench could use some better names and scoring. Already, Miami is trying to get Blazers' Rudy Fernandez and Andre Miller, even though the potential trade is very unlikely to happen. Another big name would try to get Kyle Korver, an excellent shooter who would likely work with Quentin Richardson to be a 3-point shooting duo. Even that will add significant amount of scoring and energy off the bench.

My prediction for Miami, if you keep the team the way it is while adding Chris Bosh to Miami and trading Michael Beasley, is to finish second in the Southeast Division with a 59-23 record, third in the conference behind Orlando and Cleveland, if LeBron stays in Cleveland. But in the end, the Chris Bosh pick up will prove to uplift Miami to be a contender for years to come.

Sunday, July 4, 2010

Wimbledon 2010: Nadal Restarts his Cycle

Last year, Rafael Nadal looked to be on his apparent downfall, after he suddenly withdrew from the 2009 Wimbledon Championships. His ranking dropped, and all seemed lost to the fast-paced player nicknamed "El Toro".

However, when walking into the 2010 French Open, the expectations for Nadal were low, even though he was the tournament champion four times and known as the "King of Clay". Then, as we know it, he won in a seemingly easy fashion, winning back the attention of people and the glorious number one rank.

In the 2010 Wimbledon Championships, Nadal seemed to get off on the wrong foot, needing 5 sets to dispatch unseeded Robin Haase and 33 seeded Philipp Petzschner, both won after trailing 2-1 in sets. Yet the close losses in the 2nd and 3rd rounds seemed to wake up the long lost "El Toro" who once again showed his dominance like he did in 2008 and early 2009, where if you count the 2009 Australian Open, he won 3 of the 5 grand slams. After just losing one set in the next four rounds, Nadal once again was named Wimbledon champion after his straight set victory of Tomas Berdych in the finals.

Now walking off the courts as once again the most dominating player in tennis, Nadal is looking like he will repeat what he did in 2008 and continue to chase down Federer's 16 titles. However, Nadal with his frantic playing style to never give up on any point has proven to let him down. Most of 2009 was plagued by injuries, which led to his eventual withdrawal from Wimbledon. I believe that we are seeing a spike of greatness that what I am calling the "Nadal Cycle".

Nadal has until the 2011 Australian Open to dominate tennis until his knees start to "give up". His style of play is to hit shots with incredible top spin after running down every shot, even if it includes running from one side of the court to the other for 10 consecutive shots. To see an example of Nadal's type of play, look at this video, that features both winning and losing rallies from Nadal.

Here are 2 reasons why Nadal will disappear after the Australian Open in 2011.

Nadal has not changed his style of play - Since his comeback to tennis, Rafael has maintained the same style of his frantic running and top spin techniques. During his win against Philipp Petzschner, Nadal needed to see the trainer to see his knees, which has shown that Nadal is still not in condition to handle 5 setters. Even with the injury still going, he still is trying to fight through it heroically... or foolishly...

Nadal is at his peak - Right now, we are seeing the peak of Rafael Nadal, and that is a good thing and a bad thing. It's bad because he will not get any better than we see him right now, but slowly get worse and worse. Rafael Nadal has sacrificed his body to become the most dominating player in tennis, similarly to Del Potro. This will mean he will have one peak where he will be the absolute best in the world, but then die away quickly.

But for now, congratulations to Nadal for his new title and Berdych making it that far in the tournament. With Federer's time of greatness coming to an end, we can hope to see new faces in tennis.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

NBA Free Agency: Amar'e Stoudemire Looks to Uprise Knicks

Over the years, Amar'e Stoudemire had a reputation as a lazy under-achiever. But everyone's opinions changed when the Suns made their surprising run to the conference finals with Stoudemire as their leader, averaging 23.1 points and 8.9 rebounds. However, even after almost eliminating the eventual champions, the Lakers, Steve Kerr alarmingly stepped down as the Suns' General Manager, which started speculations about Amar'e's contract. Stoudemire had the option to opt out of his last year with the Suns, which he eventually did for a place in the much anticipated 2010 Free Agency Class, which features names such as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, to either resign with the Suns or sign with another team.

Yet Amar'e has met with the lowly Knicks, who posted a 29-53 record in the 2009-2010 but have an enourmous salary cap to easily sign players such as Lebron James and Chris Bosh. Stoudemire is now close to a deal that would give him a five-year, $100 million max contract. With David Lee seemingly leaving New York, it would leave room to Stoudemire to shine as the star for New York (for now).

New York has not been in the playoffs since the 2003-2004 season, even though they posted a 39-43 record to qualify. Seriously lacking any type of talent, they had to rely on Nate Robinson, who was traded to the Celtics at the deadline this season, and David Lee. Yet Stoudemire seems like the right move for them, as he brings instant offense and still has not shown his full potential as one of the leagues top power forwards. Some say that Steve Nash was the reason he succeeded in Phoenix, but I personally disagree with that.

Here are 2 reasons why Stoudemire is a good fit with the Knicks:

He can create his own shot: Amar'e is one of the best power forwards in the NBA for a reason. With his 245 pound and 6 feet 10 inch frame, his strength and quickness lets him blow by, muscle, or shoot with his much improved jumper. Most centers are too slow to guard him and most power forwards are too weak.

He is an effective rebounder: Rebounding is one of the most underrated stats in the NBA. One of the only teams that actually took that stat into consideration was our Portland Trail Blazers, who saw that after losing their 2 centers and had to trade for Marcus Camby. Stoudemire can easily bully his way for the offensive boards along with boxing out for defensive rebounds.

I believe Amar'e will make the Knicks an instant contender for the playoffs in the East, which requires a near .500 record to make it there. Stoudemire will easily give them that opportunity.

Hey, it's Mike Mart with The Dead Ball.

Welcome to The Dead Ball, a blog dedicated to sports such as the Oregon State Beavers, University of Oregon Ducks, the NBA, and much more. I am Mike Mart to offer in-depth analysis of current situations, controverseys, and news and to offer my personal predictions and opinions. Enjoy!